RBNZ keeps us waiting for the green signal, holding the OCR at 3.25%.
You’ve pushed the button, but the red man’s still glowing, that basically sums up today’s OCR update. The Reserve Bank held the OCR steady at 3.25%, waiting for short-term inflation pressures (like rising food prices) to ease. It looks like we’ll have to wait a bit longer to move.
Inflation’s likely still hovering at the upper end of their 1–3% target band through Q2 and Q3, but with New Zealand’s economic recovery remaining slow and steady, the RBNZ hasn’t ruled out more cuts this year. In fact, the signal could turn green as early as August.
We're expecting the RBNZ will cut again in August and November, possibly bringing the OCR down to 2.75% before pausing again. That timing would coincide with over half of NZ’s mortgages repricing in Q4 2025, putting more money back in households’ pockets, boosting business confidence, and helping fuel the recovery.
Meanwhile, the property market’s quietly gaining momentum. Prices haven’t surged, but they’ve stabilised. Sales volumes and transactions have been rising month by month. If this trend continues and rates bottom out, the pressure is likely to shift back onto prices.
With affordability at one of its best points in years, it’s not a bad time to cross ahead of the crowd. Properties settling next year could look like smart buying in hindsight. Time to learn more about investing in property?
In summary:
- OCR on hold at 3.25% – but we could see the green light for a drop come August.
- Market sentiment improving as inflationary pressures ease.
- Property market showing early signs of momentum.
- Now is a strong window for buyers, before competition ramps up.