The Property Clock moves from Stage 7 to 9: What does this mean for buyers?

As a company, Properli marks the property market stages on our own Properli Clock to mark out in a simple way what the property market is doing and whether it’s the ideal time to buy, sell or invest.

New Zealand’s property market has rotated from Stage 7 (end of the cold phase) toward Stage 9 (warming up). Practically, that means sentiment is thawing, demand begins to rise, time-to-sell starts to reduce, and prices begin to lift alongside improving employment and falling interest rates. In short: conditions are turning in buyers’ favour, but the best value is moving fast.

What this shift means for property investors or first home buyers: 

• Stage 7 (end of Cold): Buyers face less competition and more negotiating power; investors can secure below-market deals, but patience is needed.
• Stage 9 (Warming Up): Confidence returns, “time to sell decreases,” and “property prices start to rise,” so acting early can capture the upswing before momentum builds.

Property Investors: Get set before growth accelerates

As we move out of cold, it’s an excellent time to acquire an investment property before capital growth accelerates. Property market competition is still manageable, but it builds quickly once momentum is obvious.

Opportunities:

• Lock in quality assets while the market is still re-pricing upward.
• With interest rates declining towards the lows, your cashflow position on a property investment is becoming more favourable. This means that your rental income is close to covering your mortgage costs– rental yield and mortgage rates are almost the same.

Moves to make now:

• Now might be a great time to secure funding when rates are about to bottom out and focus your energy on growth corridors.

First-Home Buyers: The window is open, but don’t dally

Cold offered “the most affordable time in the cycle” with room to negotiate. In Stage 9 of the property click, there’s still a window of market opportunity to secure your first home on your terms, but prices can start climbing quickly on desirable stock.

Opportunities:

• Leverage your improved range of choice from the tail of cold while financial conditions ease.
• Lowering interest rates after the recent OCR reductions will mean money is more affordable to borrow

Moves to make now:

• Get pre-approval in place and be offer-ready when you find your ideal first home.
• Act decisively if your finances allow; lock in a structure that suits your budget and finances.

Moving from Stage 7 → Stage 9 shows the property market is showing green shoots. If you’ve been waiting for a sign, this is it: align your finances, shortlist quality assets whether you are an investor or FHB, and move before the crowd fully returns.

*This is general guidance only and is not published to be official financial or investment advice, and you need to speak to a Financial or Investment Adviser to get a personalised strategy to suit your individual needs and situation.